The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy production) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). The theory provides a quantitative basis of the transient-pulse theory of modern civilization. From 2030 on, Humanity would return step by step to previous levels of civilization, ending in one thousand years (3.000 a.C.) with a hunting-culture based as the one that existed in the Earth three millions years ago.
This theory was stated by Richard C. Duncan based upon his experience in energy sources and his passion over archeology.
Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time approximately from when energy production per capita rises from 37% of the peak value to when it falls to below 37% of its peak value (1930-2030) i.e. the peak in energy production per capita is in between these two endpoints and these two endpoints have values of 37% of the peak value.
This theory was stated by Richard C. Duncan based upon his experience in energy sources and his passion over archeology.
Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time approximately from when energy production per capita rises from 37% of the peak value to when it falls to below 37% of its peak value (1930-2030) i.e. the peak in energy production per capita is in between these two endpoints and these two endpoints have values of 37% of the peak value.
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